1. Artificial intelligence is coming for your work.
In order to protect your career, it is best to do work that machines are not good at-for example, work involving people, unpredictability or creativity. We want to avoid repetitive or structured jobs that automatically disappear in a predictable environment, such as telemarketers, warehouse workers, cashiers, train operators, bakers or assembly line chefs, etc. Drivers of trucks, buses, taxis and uber / lyft may soon be replaced. In addition, there are many occupations (including paralegals, credit analysts, loan officers, bookkeepers and tax accountants), although they are not included in the list to be replaced, but most of their work is automated , So it requires less manpower.
2. Unemployment may turn into a lifetime vacation.
The advancement of artificial intelligence can not only create a luxurious leisure society for all people, but also bring unprecedented suffering to the majority of people who cannot be employed, depending on how the artificially produced wealth is taxed and shared.
3. The killer robot is not fictitious.
We are about to launch an out-of-control arms race on manually controlled weapons, which may weaken the military power of today ’s great powers because it allows everyone to have a cheap and convenient assassination machine full of wallets, including terror. Organization. Artificial intelligence researchers object to this and hope to reach an international artificial intelligence weapon control treaty.
4. The machine has no IQ.
And intelligence is necessary to accomplish complex goals. It cannot be quantified with a number, such as IQ, because different organisms and machines are good at different things.
5. Artificial intelligence is becoming more and more widespread.
Today’s artificial intelligence is mainly narrowly defined intelligence, that is, the ability to complete a set of small goals, such as playing chess or driving, and its performance is sometimes better than humans. In contrast, humans have real intelligence, the ability to accomplish any goal, including learning. The ultimate development goal of artificial intelligence is artificial general intelligence (Artificial General Intelligence: AGI), that is, the ability to complete any intellectual task like humans. Many leading artificial intelligence researchers believe that we are only a few decades away from AGI.
6. Artificial intelligence may leave us far behind.
As the British mathematician Irving J. Good explained in 1965: “Making a super-intelligent machine is defined as a machine that can far exceed human intellectual activity, no matter how smart it is.” Because the design of the machine is this kind of intellectual activity, a super intelligent machine can design a better machine. There is no doubt that this will be an “intellectual explosion”, and human wisdom will fall far behind. Therefore, the first super-intelligent machine is the last invention that humans need to make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to control it.
7. We are far from reaching the limit of calculation.
Since the birth of my grandmother, the cost of computers has dropped significantly. If everything becomes cheaper, then one percent of the money will allow you to buy all the goods and services produced on the planet this year. Moore’s Law determines how much it costs us to move electronics on a two-dimensional silicon wafer. Once on this platform, we can try many other hardware solutions-such as using three-dimensional circuits and using electronics to complete our bidding. We are still a trillion times lower than the limit calculation of the laws of physics.
8. Artificial intelligence can help human prosperity.
Because everything in human civilization is a product of intelligence, we use artificial intelligence to amplify our own wisdom, which may help life to flourish as before and solve our most difficult problems, from disease to climate change.
9. Artificial intelligence poses risks.
Hollywood’s fear of machines becoming conscious and evil is a distraction. The real worry is not maliciousness, but ability. The definition of super artificial intelligence is that it is very good at achieving its goals, no matter what they are, so we need to ensure that its goals are consistent with our goals. Humans generally don’t hate ants, but we are much smarter than them-so if we want to build a hydroelectric power plant, there are ant hills, which is simply too bad for ants.
10. We need artificial intelligence security research.
In order to ensure the increasing influence of artificial intelligence on society, more research on artificial intelligence safety is needed. For example, how can we turn today’s buggy computer into a powerful and powerful artificial intelligence system that we truly trust? How to let the machine learn, accept and retain our goal?
These are challenging questions that may take decades to answer, so we should start a study now to ensure we can find the answers when we need them. But compared to spending billions of dollars to make artificial intelligence more powerful, so far governments of all countries have almost no funds for artificial intelligence security research.