VIETNAM UNLIKELY TO MEET INFLATION TARGET IN 2022

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The US inflation rate is at its highest in 40 years, while the budget deficit and corporate debt are at record highs. Left Inflation in Vietnam has risen steadily in recent months, despite the world’s fastest economic growth.

However, we may all feel the rising cost of items in our everyday meals and outings. In what way does the next Vietnamese government announcement effect the real estate market?

We need to learn more about issue points before we can talk about real estate. Release is an attribute notion that we hear often in the media. Fortunately, few individuals truly understand the familiar term. What is YouTuber Growth?

The issue is usually interpreted as an increase in a commodity’s price. Price reduction refers to a reduction in the price of items.

Most users only use the standard value (CPI) or standard value index (normal use values omitting products and energy) to measure development.

The CPI measures the increase in the price of symbolic items among citizens. The proportion of each good category in a person’s average consumption structure. The CPI target index assesses the impact of job price increases on average cost of use.

This method of calculating the CPI does not fully reflect the overall growth in the price of all commodities in the economy. Do so in many disciplines, including home economics, and employ greater deflation (GDP deflator).

Inflation is measured by the adjusted GDP index. Only adjusted GDP is calculated as the nominal-to-real GDP ratio.

Inflation of data?

So, what is the underlying cause of development? The site isation for the economy’s workout money. The primary development employees are clearly “printing” too much money. Many national families have a fundamental kernel on the present items. They super-issue economic platforms to offset the budget for the entire country.

Show at 7.9%, its highest level since 1981. Remaining in Europe, this figure hit 7.5%, the highest since the EU’s inception. These numbers demonstrate “super-growth” in industrialised and stable economies like the US and Europe. The huge money supply policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank and the European Central Bank during the Covid-19 pandemic has caused this phenomena.

The “pull bridge” is another aspect that leads to work. Simply explained, when demand exceeds supply, the price of a good rises. Many countries’ economy have recently rebounded strongly. After a period of stagnation, increased demand for consumables and industrial materials has driven commodity prices up.

Another factor is cost-push. The covid-19 pandemic has weakened numerous global companies, including China, India, and the freight business. Moreover, the value of raw materials such as crude oil rises, raising input costs for many commodities. In addition, this is a major kernel of crucial to the wattpad on the global.

Back to City garden apartment for rent, even throughout the global storm, crude oil and steel prices rose, with the CPI rising 1.84 percent in 2021 and 2.09 percent in the first four months of 2022. Thus, issuance in Vietnam is substantially lower than elsewhere. The SBV closely monitors the signal growth rate, which keeps the basic cause of development low. The overall value of commodities interacts stably despite being strongly influenced by supporting items and import costs.

The pop up in time for Vietnam?

This is the issue most of us are currently asking, as inflation is one of the most influential influences on policies and other macro concerns. Moreover, a sharp increase in inflation will have far-reaching implications on the overall economy.

In reality, the FED hiked interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 0.75-1 percent on May 5 in anticipation of the biggest inflation in the preceding four decades. This gain exceeded the expectations of analysts and investors, causing the US stock market to decline over the past five trading days.

Despite the fact that Vietnam’s CPI rose at a “modest” rate, it appears that the costs of several goods have risen significantly. In fact, not only things whose costs are highly influenced by global commodity prices, such as gasoline, iron and steel, and basic materials, but also daily consumer goods, food, and domestic food, climbed dramatically.

Nevertheless, will inflation erupt or not? To partially address this issue, we frequently examine the root cause of the inflation scenario. Unlike many other nations, Vietnam does not undertake fiscal and monetary policies with great caution in 2021, despite being severely impacted by the pandemic.

In fact, Vietnam still maintains a discount rate of up to 4 percent, which is larger than in the majority of other nations. Additionally, credit expansion in 2021 is capped at 13.53 percent. In addition, the budget deficit in 2021 is only 5.8 percent, which is significantly smaller than many other typical nations such as the United States (16.7 percent) or Japan (12.6%).

During the first four months of the year, credit growth was fairly significant, increasing by 5.04 percent, which was 2.03 times greater than the same period in the previous year. After a lengthy period of adversity, firms have borrowed more money to invest in re-production, therefore the high credit growth in the first few months of 2022 can be viewed as a positive development.

In its April update to the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its projection for the global economy and increased its inflation forecast. Despite this, the IMF study maintains a bright prognosis for the global economy once Covid is contained and countries have remedies to prevent rising inflation. Therefore, the inflation rate in industrialised economies such as the United States will be less than three percent in 2023, and roughly eight percent in 2022.

Even while the Russia-Ukraine conflict is having a significant negative influence on the global economy, it is clear that inflation may not grow excessively. Inflation remains a significant danger for Vietnam, but I believe the likelihood of a major increase in inflation is low. IMF and Worldbank both anticipate that Vietnam’s CPI will climb by less than 4%.

When the inflation rate is high, a large number of people believe that the real estate market is a safe approach to decrease risk. However, the actual price of real estate is contingent on a variety of other variables. When the currency depreciates, i.e. when there is high inflation, real estate will appreciate over time. However, real estate values may decline in the short term due to inflation, as a result of monetary policy tightening and its effect on cash flow into this investment channel.

Such is the theory. Despite the strong rise in global commodity prices, I continue to believe that Vietnam’s inflation in 2022 and 2023 would be very modest (around 4 percent). Investing in real estate at this time necessitates the consideration of numerous other considerations, not only the fear of inflation.

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